Global world crisis - March 20.....

[markTHEblake]

If you have an interest in economics, you will be interested in this. If you dont, then right now would be a good time to start, cos this is gunna be huge.

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929.

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.


Read the entire article here: http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

[3oneday]

Is that from Nostradamus too, or is he dead now ??? :p

[Jarro]

nice Blakey, you can tell me what it all means while we're playing at Nudgee today :roll:

[BrisVegas]

Trung has alluded to it as well.

check out http://www.petrodollarwarfare.com/

[Moe Norman]

It's a load of theoretical bull****.

reminds me of Y2K

[AndyP]

I've sold all my shares, and withdrawn all money from my bank accounts. My cash is now tucked safely under my mattress with the pornos at home.

[connico]

what thommo said..

[markTHEblake]

Trung has alluded to it as well.

I always said Trung is a smart lad, thanks for that. I was never interested in financial markets at the time of the Iraq war, so never cared for the conspiracy theories of why that happened. Seems that its happening all over again with Iran - Euro for oil and womd. If the Petrodollar war theory is true, it only shows how serious the impact that March 20 will be on the US Dollar.



My cash is now tucked safely under my mattress with the pornos at home.

What is your money safe from if its tucked under your mattress?


nice Blakey, you can tell me what it all means while we're playing at Nudgee today

basically;
- The USD is the world currency; all international transactions are in USD
- Therefore anyone who sells Oil receives payment in USD.
- Many countries use the USD as the Reserve to back their own currencies.
- There is no backing to the USD - Nixon removed the gold standard in 1971.
- Therefore the only thing backing up the USD is confidence.

Starting March 20
- Iran will set up there own indendant oil trade and sell Oil for Euro's
- USA will no longer report how many USD is in circulation nor how much USD is being printed. What is the US Federal Reserve hiding and Why?


Impact;
- Iran selling Oil for Euro - USD devalues against the Euro, leads to loss of confidence in the USD.
- US Fed Reserve hiding vital info - loss of confidence in the USD.

So we are seeing 2 major issues resulting in a loss of confidence in the World Currency. By how much remains to be seen.

[Moe Norman]

that is the most rediculous thing I've ever read. Obviously the recent Iraq war hasn't forced any further interest in financial markets if you take any of the crap in the above post seriously.

[markTHEblake]

that is the most rediculous thing I've ever read.

thats not a very convincing arguement. Which bit dont you understand?


Obviously the recent Iraq war hasn't forced any further interest in financial markets if you take any of the crap in the above post seriously.

The two events that will occur late March havent occurred before. How can you use a different event to say there will be no impact?

and by the way you obviously havent been following the financial markets the last few years.

[Moe Norman]

the proof will be in the pudding, I'm guessing you also think a plane didn't hit the pentagon?

[brad]

Ahhhhh crap!!!! And I just booked holidays for the week commencing 20th March ... or maybe that's a good thing.

If this is wrong, no real harm, if it right, what can you do about it, not much

[damoocow]

moe wrote
quote::
the proof will be in the pudding, I'm guessing you also think a plane didn't hit the pentagon?


Am just wondering why you think a plane did hit the pentagon ??

damoocow

[markTHEblake]

the proof will be in the pudding, I'm guessing you also think a plane didn't hit the pentagon?

whats that got to do with the price of eggs in china :roll: There is no conspiracy theory angle in any of this.

Cmon Mr This is Ridiculous - if the M3 data is so irrelevant explain why the Fed is hiding it from now on?

Surely with all those degrees you have, means there must an intelligent response in there somewhere. I dont even know the difference between micro and macro economics so c'mon - enlighten me.

Oh By the way, wrong guess.

[Courty]

OK. So break it down for me. How will this affect me personally?

[markTHEblake]

OK. So break it down for me. How will this affect me personally?

well oil is predicted to almost double in price to over $100 a barrel in the next year or so and thats not counting any middle east crisis, so $2 a litre is just the beginining.

worst case scenario - is a picture of AndyP's missus doing the only usefull thing with the money under his mattress.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Inflation-1923.jpg

[brad]

One week and counting .... :|

[Moe Norman]

getting nervous guys??

[Jarro]

maybe Blakey was working off Peter_rs's calendar :mrgreen:

[Moe Norman]

I suspect it was more a case of speaking out of his ****.

[Jarro]

maybe a touch harsh that one Moe ;)

[Moe Norman]

not really, my screen still smells of bullsh#t every time I open this thread.

[Jarro]

then don't open it :roll:

[Moe Norman]

but I'm waiting for Blakey to explain to me why I was wrong.

[Jarro]

send him a PM

[markTHEblake]

but I'm waiting for Blakey to explain to me why I was wrong.

I never said you were wrong, as there is no wrong or right, its a discussion point. Naturally there are different points of views on any 'prediction'.

Anyway how could I say you are wrong- you havent even justified your point except for a couple of off topic generalisations, an underlying sentiment of shooting the messenger.

I am uneducated, bludged all the way through high school, never took a single economics subject, and spent most of my life as a common bank teller. You should be able to tear me to shreads with all those degrees you have.

This would be like matching up Mohammed Ali against Pee Wee Herman.

What an amazing opportunity you have now! You could become the known as one who knocks Markthe "I Know Everything" Blake off his pedestal. The guys will be cheering you more than they will be cheering Scotty tomorrow.

[Moe Norman]

no need, I said it wouldn't happen and it hasn't. There isn't even a point to argue, the facts are right there in black and white.

[markTHEblake]

no need, I said it wouldn't happen and it hasn't.

what is 'it' that hasnt happened?

The Iranian Oil Bourse is up and running (isnt it? havent heard otherwise).
The Fed is no longer reporting the M3.

Its all happened - cant argue with these facts son.

[PeteyD]

US dollar getting stronger - obviously the predictions were right!

[markTHEblake]

ummm, the predictions in the article refer to end of the year (from memory the suggestion is USD 1.3 to 1.7 to 1 euro) so quite a long way to go yet.

dont forget the USD has lost almost 30% of its value against the one true currency in the last 6 months, which is when all this stuff started developing.

[markTHEblake]

From www.anglofareast.com (http://www.anglofareast.com)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Friday 2nd June, 2006 AD
FOLLOWING THE EURO FOR OIL STORY

Addressing the country on state television, Venezuela's Oil Minister
'Rafael Ramirez' didn't miss the opportunity this week to re-assure viewers
of his county's intention to bypass the US wherever possible with their
very strategic asset, "If a (oil) market in euros is created, with the euro as
a reference, we could send our supplies there so they are sold under this
currency. Iran has an initiative that we support," he finished.

Without question, Oil is the king of commodities. In this modern world, no
other commodity is more essential to the maintenance of 6 billion human
lives. No other article of trade results in such large daily movement of
money worldwide.

For well over half a century now, the king of commodities has been
denominated and bought & sold in United States dollars.

Selling Oil for Euro is no new concept. In former days it was Saddam
Hussein that was particularly keen to set aside regional differences in an
effort to stitch together a consortium of Middle East nations that would
accept Euros as payment for their Oil.

With Saddam off the scene, in 2004 Iran became the next to push the
euro for oil barrow with their proposed Euro denominated 'Iranian Oil
Bourse'. However, in March this year, its planned launch failed to
materialize. Were Iran's plans for a Euro alternative shelved temporarily or
permanently? - no-one really seamed to know. Admittedly Iran was now
busy managing its nuclear stand-off with the West.

Subsequently, oil dependent China, keen to sew up long-term supply
contracts, announced that it would gladly pay for its oil with Euros.
Russia was next cab off the rank, claiming it would back and supply its oil
to any Euro denominated exchange. Then in early May, Iran popped
back into picture when Iran's oil ministry reported that it had granted a
'license' for the creation of its much talked about euro-denominated
exchange.

Venezuela is probably the world's most outspoken opponent of the US.
Comments from Rafael Ramirez this week was just throwing a little more
fuel on the fire.

In the past we have contended that future wars and struggles will center
around both the supply of oil and the money that buys it. While the
supremacy of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is unlikely to
change dramatically anytime soon, it certainly appears that there is a
progressively growing undercurrent of change.

As Individuals - our job is to equip ourselves with the knowledge that will
help us survive and prosper in our changing world. At Daily Dig - our job
is to dig up the relevant information that will provide you, our valued
readers, with this knowledge.

Sincerely - Philip Judge

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
"THE DAILY DIG" is a quick
(almost) daily thought, commentary, market
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[brad]

Thanks for digging this up for us MTB.

At least if it occurs, then we are forewarned, if not, then it is entertaining in its own right.